Don't one-time events happen just once?
Not at Proctor & Gamble
. The maker of Tide detergent and other household staples has
booked restructuring charges with tidal regularity -- in each of the
past seven quarters.
And that, critics
note, has led to a cleansing of the earnings figure that Wall Street
analysts use to calculate the company's growth rate and stock-market
value, making this much more than an academic accounting question.
P&G's growth rate is a particularly prickly issue because the
company faces a mature U.S. market for its products and is trying to
prove it can still expand sales by operating more efficiently, producing
innovative products and out-marketing the competition.
The
tally of the charges since 1999: $1.3 billion. And more of these
nonrecurring events are expected to recur. P&G says it plans to take
such quarterly charges for the next three years. It expects to wrap up
restructuring efforts by June 2004, at which time the charges are likely
to total $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion.
P&G
says its accounting is entirely appropriate, because restructuring
isn't business as usual. The charges stem from an overhaul of the
company's operations that was begun in June 1999, and the new ones will
be the result of a big expansion of that restructuring effort, announced
two weeks ago. The company notes that Securities and Exchange
Commission rules preclude it from taking a mammoth charge upfront to
cover all anticipated costs, and that it instead is required to book the
charges as the costs are actually incurred.
Critics,
however, say the treatment ignores the fact that closing factories and
cutting jobs are part of running a big company in tough markets.
"They've got to do them to do business," says Jack Ciesielski, an
independent accounting expert in Baltimore, who publishes the Analyst's
Accounting Observer, a newsletter. "It's a cost of doing business."
Adds
J. Douglas Hanna, a professor at the University of Chicago: "It's just
not safe to ignore these charges." Mr. Hanna, who studies what he calls
"the infamous recurring nonrecurring charge," says more companies are
booking charges. According to his research, more than a quarter of all
companies filing with the SEC take a charge each year, up from 1% in
1970.
There are some companies that have bucked the trend, including International Business Machines-IBM
. Since 1996, it has included restructuring costs as part of
operating expenses. An IBM spokesman says, "It's a cost of doing
business."
But even as P&G excludes
the restructuring charges from what it calls its "core net earnings," it
includes gains from selling brands, sales that some analysts and
investors believe should be treated as one-time events. Sales of smaller
brands have helped P&G post gains in its core net earnings over the
past three quarters; excluding those gains, operating income dropped in
those periods.
The company, based in
Cincinnati, says it includes gains from selling business units because
shedding brands is part of a continuing strategy to narrow its focus.
For investors who prefer not to include such gains, the company notes
that it breaks out the components so investors can do their own math.
Depending
on investors' views of the charges and gains, P&G earnings are
either rising or falling. Ignore the charges and gains, and operating
earnings have declined in the past four quarters. Include the charges
and gains: Net income rose in the past three quarters but fell in the
quarter preceding those three.
Consider
the most recent quarter, the three months ended Dec. 31. P&G
reported net income of $1.19 billion for the fiscal second quarter, a 6%
increase from $1.126 billion in the year-earlier quarter. The
most-recent quarter included a restructuring charge of $120 million and a
gain of about $141 million from the sale of brands (primarily its
Clearasil skin-care products). Excluding the charge and including the
gain, "core net earnings" were $1.314 billion, up 4% from $1.263 billion
the year earlier and beat Wall Street estimates by a penny a share.
If
you back out the gain, as does Tim Drake, a senior equity analyst at
Banc One Investment Advisors, in Columbus, Ohio, P&G's core earnings
actually dropped 7%, to $1.16 billion.
"Their
business isn't manufacturing brands and companies to sell. Their
business is manufacturing products to sell," Mr. Drake says. "My
projections for this year and next year are well below what anybody's
talking about on Wall Street." The funds he advises continue to hold
about $449 million of P&G stock, though, because the company has
strong brands.
P&G shares have
traded down so far this year, along with those of the company's peers.
The stock is off 22% since year end, and at 4 p.m. Tuesday in New York
Stock Exchange composite trading, it fell 50 cents to $61.10.
Some
analysts have expressed doubts about P&G's ability to meet its
growth objectives in recent months. While P&G says its double-digit
earnings-growth target may be hard to hit next fiscal year because of
disruption from the restructuring, it is sticking with this as a goal.
The restructuring is to help the company gain ground on rivals with
lower operating costs.
P&G says the
overhaul will take through June 2004 because the company, with $40
billion in annual sales, is so big and the program so extensive. P&G
is putting thousands of managers in new jobs in an effort to work
globally, instead of regionally. In revamping the plan two weeks ago,
the company said it would have three global business units, down from
the seven planned in 1999, and would cut 24,600 jobs, instead of 15,000.
As a result, it will spend twice as much as originally planned,
necessitating as much as $4.3 billion in charges.
Most
Wall Street analysts accept P&G's view of how its earnings should
be analyzed. The 14 Wall Street analysts who follow the company and
submit per-share earnings estimates to Thomson Financial/First Call
exclude the restructuring charges and include the gains. "It's
considered part of normal operating procedure," says Heather Murren, a
Merrill Lynch analyst. A big purpose of analysts' estimates is to allow
comparisons of a company's results over the years. In order to do that,
"to be consistent you've got to exclude [charges] now," she says.
But
that doesn't mean they're all thrilled with the situation. "The
reality," says William Steele, a Banc of America Securities analyst who
is among the Thomson Financial/First Call filers and who rates P&G a
"buy," is that P&G shares are "being judged on consensus estimates
which are probably not that accurate, or not totally representative of
the ongoing operating strength of the company."
Given
that P&G has laid out a schedule for coming charges, "you can
chastise the company for the way it puts a [news] release out, but it is
still the analysts' job to put some thought into this issue and decide
what should or shouldn't be included," says Chuck Hill, director of
research at Thomson Financial/First Call.
No comments:
Post a Comment